Why the market will not crash and we should stay invested?

by - October 05, 2017


This is a hypothetical saying. I have believed in dooms-day for the longest time. It has to do with my upbringing. My mom talks about how the market price is fake, it's too high, the market will crash ..blah blah. FOR 20 YEARS. -.-" Now, I think market WILL NEVER CRASH.

If you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.- Spock

This doesn't mean it's not a volatile market or there won't be downswing. I don't think we can have another Black Friday like 87's or a long wait towards any recovery. I like someone to tell me it's possible because I don't see it. Yes, there may not be actual economic activity, but the share market will only have bloom time. What we might see is a couple of days dip and then a recovery by the time it reaches like 5-10% drop.

The reasons are simple

I am not a professional, I am just a logic person and here's the logic I read from the papers:

1. All currency is not pegged to gold anymore. Any central bank will come out and "save" the market if a crash occurs. 
2. Most funds are electronic trading. That rules out the emotion of the fund managers. 
3. Liquidity speed is now faster than travelling. Any big dip will result in a new fund rushing for the "value".

So, unless World War happens again, which your cash in the bank will be worthless, anyway. There's no reason for the share market to have a long bear, particularly when everyone is trying to invest. 

What investment risk do we have? Country risk. If a country is doing relatively bad and all the foreign fund runs in a day, we might have an issue. That is rather unlikely for a civilised, not-on-war country to fall because whatever USA ditch, China save. Vice versa. Knowing that gives us room to trade/bet on any country with a general election upcoming.

What else?

Corporation risk. We would more likely to see technology disruption (awesomeness for everyone with internet access) and demand disruption for individual corporations.

We know that people will still need to eat (crops, food tech), feel useful (power, communications) and feel safe (insurance and medical). We also know people want to be more productive (less mortal and brick shopping, faster travel time).

In other words, choose a total market fund, have currency hedge.

How to go about this?

You could still time the market, but don't wait too long.

The saver has 100% chance of losing.
The investor has 50% chance of success.

Take your pick.

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